Labour set to scrape election win

LABOUR appears to be heading for a narrow by-election victory in Dunfermline today - but with a massively reduced majority.

Early indications from postal vote returns and internal party polling suggest that Catherine Stihler, the Labour candidate, will scrape home as the new MP for Dunfermline and West Fife early tomorrow morning.

But the result is expected to be much closer than the comfortable 11,500 majority that Labour secured in last year's general election. Privately, Labour chiefs admit they expect a majority of between 2,000 and 3,000, but it could be even smaller and there is a chance that either the SNP or the Liberal Democrats could steal the seat if they can persuade enough Labour voters to switch sides or stay at home today.

The problem for the other main parties is that opposition to Labour has been evenly split. Had the Nationalists or the Liberal Democrats been seen as the main challenger, they could have attracted a big enough share of the anti-Labour vote to cause a real upset. But, with support for the SNP and the Lib Dems so finely balanced, neither has been strong enough to challenge Labour on their own.

Senior figures in both parties were talking up their respective chances last night, confident that a last-ditch effort today could see them clinch victory.

The battle for second and third place is very important for both parties. If the SNP comes second, having taken a large number of votes from Labour in what should be a safe Labour seat, Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, can claim to be on course for success in next year's Holyrood elections.

But if the Nationalists are beaten into third place, the Liberal Democrats will claim that their travails over their leadership election have not affected their support.

Ms Stihler made a last appeal to Labour voters to turn out.

She said: "Some Labour supporters may feel there is little at stake in this by-election. With respect, there is a lot at stake. We've brought 10,000 jobs to this area since 1997 and only Labour will deliver 10,000 more."

Lord Renard, chief executive of the Lib Dems, said: "It is the Liberal Democrats who will emerge from the campaign as the real challengers to Labour in Labour's former heartlands."

The SNP claimed to have the support of the local hospital campaigners, who contested the 2003 election, and Mr Salmond said: "It's clear from all the available evidence that there will be a huge swing to the SNP at the polls here tomorrow."

And Carrie Ruxton, the Tory candidate, said: "We have led on issues like the Forth Bridge and the hospital and now it's up to the voters to decide if they want a new face."

Ministers will confirm their decision on a new Forth road bridge by 31 March, the Scottish Executive said yesterday.

Scotsman